Environment and Global Change: Uncertainty & Risk Assessment

Participants:

1. get introduced to uncertainty and risk principles, tools and methodologies;
2. learn about climate change and impact studies on the environment;
3. get experience with climate change downscaling techniques and ensemble modelling.

The course looks at impacts in the Nzoia catchments (Kenya) considering floods and droughts, using a hydrological model using SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and a hydrodynamic model.

The course is designed for young and mid-level professionals who are involved in water management or research, and/or who want to learn about risk assessment for climate change.

Course Contents

Climate change and its impact on hydrology, Prof. S. Uhlenbrook, PhD (UNESCO-IHE)

Introduction to the effects of climate variability on the hydrology.

Climate change and uncertainty, Prof. JC Refsgaard, PhD (GEUS, Denmark)

Introduction to uncertainty terminology in relation to climate change impact assessments

Downscaling of climate change scenarios, Y. Xuan, PhD (UNESCO-IHE)

Introduction to the concept of downscaling, general downscaling methods used to fit GCM data into catchment modelling in studying climate change impacts on local scale. The Nzoia river basin is used asthe test-bed for exercise.

Uncertainty analysis and ensemble modelling, A. van Griensven, PhD (UNESCO-IHE)

Introduction to uncertainty analysis methods such as Monte-Carlo sampling. Bayesian averaging and model ensembles. Exercises on the Nzoia river basin using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and SWAT-CUP (auto-calibration and uncertainty).

Probabilistic risk assessment, G. Di Baldassarre, PhD (UNESCO-IHE)

The concepts of vulnerability, hazard, risk. Description of the most common sources of uncertainty and variability in the risk assessment process. Deterministic and probabilistic risk assessment. Example applications of probabilistic approaches for assessing risk.